Nigeria growth forecast projects 4.4% average annual growth through 2028 as the World Bank urges sustained reforms, lower inflation and better public services.
The projection appeared in the bank’s latest Nigeria Development Update, released on October 8, 2026, which examined the country’s economic performance, the growing revenues available to state governments and the need to ensure that recent improvements translate into better living conditions for ordinary Nigerians.
According to the report, Nigeria’s economy grew by 4.2% in the first half of 2026, compared with 3.9% during the corresponding period in 2025, with the services sector and agriculture contributing significantly to the expansion.
Although the latest figures indicate an improvement in economic activity, the World Bank stressed that sustaining this progress will require consistent policies, better management of public resources and stronger private-sector participation, particularly as households continue to face pressure from elevated living costs.
Nigeria Growth Forecast Points to Lower Inflation
The World Bank expects inflation to decline gradually towards 12% by 2028, compared with approximately 15% at the end of 2025, although higher fuel prices and food costs have complicated efforts to reduce inflation further in 2026.
A sustained reduction in inflation could ease some of the pressure on households, businesses and workers who have struggled with rising expenses, but the extent of the improvement will depend on how prices develop and whether incomes can keep pace with the cost of essential goods and services.
The bank also expects poverty to begin declining gradually if the government maintains its reform programme and improves the delivery of public services, while emphasising that stronger economic output alone will not guarantee meaningful improvements in living standards for millions of Nigerians.
For this reason, job creation, better infrastructure, improved healthcare and access to quality education remain important parts of the country’s economic recovery, as these areas can help more people benefit from growth rather than allowing the gains to remain concentrated in a limited number of sectors.
The government has also expressed support for an economy driven increasingly by private investment and employment-generating businesses, a strategy that could help strengthen productivity and expand opportunities if companies can operate in a more stable economic environment.
Higher State Revenues Create Opportunities for Development
The World Bank’s report also examined how recent economic reforms have affected government finances, particularly at the state level, where increased revenue has created more room for investment in roads, transport infrastructure, education, healthcare and other essential services.
State government revenues increased by approximately 93% in real terms between 2023 and 2025, according to the report, reflecting changes in revenue distribution and the effects of reforms that included petrol subsidy removal, exchange-rate adjustments and improvements in revenue administration.
The additional resources provide state governments with an opportunity to address infrastructure gaps and improve public services, although the World Bank noted that the impact will depend on how efficiently governments allocate and spend the funds available to them.
The bank therefore urged state authorities to strengthen accountability, improve spending efficiency and direct more resources towards human capital development, including services that can support better health outcomes, educational opportunities and a more productive workforce.
These priorities are particularly important because higher government revenues do not automatically translate into lower poverty or improved living standards, especially when public spending fails to address the needs of communities that lack essential services and economic opportunities.
Meanwhile, the World Bank’s outlook indicates that Nigeria’s economic performance will depend on the government’s ability to sustain macroeconomic stability, improve public service delivery and encourage businesses to invest in productive activities.
The Nigeria growth forecast offers a positive outlook for the coming years, but achieving the projected expansion will require consistent policy implementation and a stronger focus on ensuring that economic gains reach households across the country.
Ultimately, the success of the forecast will depend not only on whether the economy expands at the expected rate, but also on whether that expansion creates sustainable jobs, reduces poverty and improves the everyday lives of Nigerians.
