Akani Alaka examines the factors and probable pathways to victory for the three frontrunners among the 18 candidates in the 25 February presidential election.
After months of not-well-thought-out promises, mudslinging, entertainment, and violence, candidates approved as flag bearers of their political parties will submit themselves to the over 90 million registered voters on Saturday.
Voters across 176,606 polling units nationwide will have the opportunity to choose the successor to President Muhammadu Buhari and the two persons they want to send to the National Assembly when they arrive to vote on Saturday. The Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, has assured that the voting process will be smooth, even as it has also insisted that the election will hold on Saturday as scheduled.
Indeed, to ensure the smoothness of the process, INEC had some weeks ago carried out nationwide mock accreditation using the Bimodal Voter Authentication System, BVAS, that will be deployed for the election. Security operatives led by the police were busy last week rolling out their plans on how they will provide security for the successful conduct of the election.
Is INEC Ready
Last Saturday, INEC Chairman Professor Mahmood Yakubu, after a tour of the training center for field staff and the International Conference Centre, where the results of the presidential election will be collated, announced, and the winner will be handed his certificate, reaffirmed the determination of the Commission to make the election one of the most credible to be conducted in Nigeria. For one, he revealed that the corps members used mostly as field officers during the exercise would swear to an oath of neutrality.
The ICC turned the National Collation Centre for the presidential election has come alive with various activities related to the presidential election from Monday. Significantly, the 18 presidential candidates will meet with General Abdulsalami Abubakar-led peace committee at the venue on Wednesday to sign a document that will commit them to peaceful conduct during and after the election. “In essence, the 2023 general election is here. By next week, Nigerians will be voting in over 176,000 polling units for the presidential election. The choice made by Nigerians for the next president of the country will also be announced at this venue,” Prof Yakubu said.
The election will be conducted against the atmosphere of the cash crunch and the attendant hardship on the people across the country by the naira redesign and cashless policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN. The INEC chairman told journalists that the Commission already had the assurance of the CBN that it would have access to the cash it needed for its operations.
“The bulk of payment for goods and services is made through electronic transfer. But certain critical services will be reimbursed by cash, and that’s why we went to the CBN, and it’s a small percentage of the budget. The Central Bank has assured us that we will not suffer any encumbrances. So there are no issues concerning that,” said the INEC Chairman.
Election Against Background of Cash Crunch
But while INEC has assurances that cash will not impede its commitment to conduct the election, the same cannot be said of most Nigerians who have been battling to get naira notes to meet their basic needs for the past few weeks.
Thus, one of the concerns of political parties and stakeholders ahead of the election was the likely impact of the cash crunch on the poll. Among other reasons, the CBN had said the naira redesign and cashless policy, which resulted in the issuance of new N200, N500, and N1000 notes, was intended to help curb vote buying during the forthcoming elections.
Against complaints about the sufferings inflicted on Nigerians by their inability to get the new notes after they deposited their old notes to take care of their daily needs, President Buhari said the policy had succeeded in curbing monetization of the political process ahead of the presidential and National Assembly elections.
He listed this as one of the gains of the policy that will also contribute to his legacy of ensuring that the election is free and fair.
The president said, “Fellow citizens, on the 25th of February, 2023 the nation would be electing a new President and National Assembly members. I am aware that this new monetary policy has also contributed immensely to the minimization of the influence of money in politics. This is a positive departure from the past and represents a bold legacy step by this administration, towards laying a strong foundation for free and fair elections.”
The president had also directed the CBN to allow the re-circulation of the old N200 notes into the economy to ease the problems of lack of currency notes.
APC In Pains
However, the president’s directive seems not to have been able to assuage the difficulties being encountered by Nigerians in getting naira notes from their deposits either from the ATMs or bank counters.
Chieftains of the ruling party are lamenting that Nigerians will take out their frustrations on their candidates when they go to vote next Saturday. The ruling APC governors have dragged their president to the Supreme Court over the issue.
The presidential flag bearer of APC, Bola Tinubu has also been frontal in condemning the policy which some of his supporters said was aimed at making him unpopular and jeopardising his presidential ambition. But the candidates of the main opposition parties in the election had tacitly supported the policy obviously with the anticipation that the anger against the ruling party will be to their advantage at the election.
However, Festus Keyamo, Minister of State for Labour and Employment a spokesperson for the APC Presidential Campaign Council said the failure of the opposition to align with the Nigerian masses on the matter will be to the benefit of the ruling party.
Keyamo accused the opposition of turning the issue into politics. “They perceived that the policy was crippling Sen. Bola Tinubu, the APC Presidential Candidate because they see everything as politics. In their bid to heat Tinubu, they now decided to go against Nigeria masses, this is where they over-dribbled themselves. Meanwhile, Tinubu who is in the ruling party has spoken against those implementing the policy to say that they are sabotaging the policy.
However, The Nigerian Xpress findings revealed that the suffering inflicted by the naira redesign policy has become one of the tools being used by the opposition to encourage the people to vote next Saturday.
A Contest Like No Other
The presidential contest itself has been described as one like no other since the return of Nigeria to democracy since 1999. Analysts had gone back to 1979 to draw a parallel to the situation Nigerians are confronted with as they are set to choose the successor to President Buhari.
To be sure, voters will be handed a long ballot paper that contained the names of 18 candidates when they arrived at their respective polling units on Saturday, February 25.
However, analysts and polls indicated that most of the votes are expected to be shared between Peter Obi of the Labour Party, Tinubu of APC, and Atiku of the PDP. Then, there is Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party, NNPP who is also expected to pick a chunk of the votes. Tinubu, Obi, and Atiku are from the Southwest, Southeast, Northeast, and Northwest respectively.
The three candidates are expected to garner the majority of the votes in their respective regions and compete for votes in the other three regions of the country. Issues of ethnicity and religion are expected to be the chief determinants of the choice of voters.
This is more so with the fielding of a Muslim-Muslim ticket by the APC, the refusal of PDP to field a Southerner as its presidential candidate, and the demand of the Igbo of the Southeast that it is their time to produce the president of Nigeria. This is contrary to the belief that voters are likely to focus more on issues in the election.
However, there are also hopes that deployment of the BVAS and IREV technologies by INEC will reduce if not eliminate rigging and make the outcome of the election a true reflection of the choice of the people.
Analysts have predicted that with the three candidates sharing the votes among themselves, it may be difficult for a clear winner of the election to emerge on the first ballot. INEC had also indicated that it is already preparing for the conduct of a runoff election.
Can Peter Obi Upstage The Apple Cart?
No doubt, Peter Obi, the candidate of the Labour Party has emerged as the beautiful bride among the four front runners for the election. Most of the recent polls have predicted that Obi will win the February 25 election. It has been a long way for a candidate who was dismissed as a non-starter when he dumped the PDP to contest for the presidential ticket of the Labour Party, a platform without a presence in most parts of the country.
The former Anambra State governor swiftly moved on after his effort to ally with the Kwankwaso-led NNPP that would have given more support in the Northern part of the country failed. However, with the failure of the alliance, Obi had chosen Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed a former member of the House of Representatives and entrepreneur as his running mate.
Though they have no ‘structure’ as some of their opponents usually say, the Obi/Datti ticket has soldiered on, campaigning across the country on why they should be elected to take over from Buhari/Osinbajo at the Aso Rock presidential villa.
Obi particularly enjoys strong support from youths, the so-called ‘Obedients’, especially in the urban areas across the Southern part of the country.
Also, the Labour Party candidate has successfully sold himself to Nigerians as a departure from his PDP and APC counterparts with the record of his service as Anambra State Governor. Many believe that Obi is the candidate to vote for to end all the evils and inefficiencies associated with the PDP and APC at the moment in the country.
“There comes a defining moment in the life of any country when all people of good conscience must stand up to be counted. Those times offer no middle ground; you are either on the dark side or the side of the light. For Nigeria, 2023 is such a moment.
Nigerians will be divided into two classes – those who will work to entrench the forces that have destroyed Nigeria or those warriors of the light who will work to bring justice, equity, and peace to our beloved country,” Valentine Ozigbo, the PDP candidate in the 2021 Anambra State governorship election who said he would support Obi in the 2023 general election said.
He added that the selection of Datti Ahmed as the running mate made the LP’s presidential ticket attractive. Analysts predicted that in addition to the other factors, the Obi/Datti ticket will benefit from agitations of the Southeast for the presidency at Saturday’s polls. A group that described itself as Zikist-Aminu Kano Patriots (ZAP) said Obi presents reliable character, capacity, and competence to lift Nigeria out of a cliffhanger in a statement on Sunday.
“Going by the rotation convention of president from north to south and south to north; which birthed the 4th Republic Nigeria, and ensured equity, justice, and fairness, ZAP believes that the LP presidential ticket is balanced and captures the demographic quest for youth inclusion in governance. Therefore, Obi fits the bill and offers Nigeria a new path to unity, socio-political stability, and economic progress,” the group added.
Other factors that are expected to work in favour of the ticket are the disenchantment with PDP over its failure to comply with the rotation policy, especially among its traditional supporters in the Southern part of the country.
The disenchantment of voters with Muslim-Muslim ticket of APC is also expected to drive Christians in the Southern part of the country and minority Christians across the Northern part of the country towards Obi.
Notably, the LP has targeted the Christian minority areas in the Northern part of his country in his nationwide campaign. He has also been seen in churches and the endorsement of his candidacy by the socio-cultural group in the South and Middle Belta (North Central) is believed to be an added advantage for him going into the election.
Of course, some of the polls that have tipped the LP candidate as a possible winner of the presidential election have mainly predicted that he will gather sufficient votes across four of Nigerian six geopolitical zones – the Southwest, Southeast, South-south, and Northcentral, and also meet the constitutional requirement of scoring 25% in at least 24 states.
However, opponents of Obi have always dismissed the polls, saying Labour Party did not have the structure to deliver victory in the presidential election. This will be put to test on Saturday.
Atiku: Third Time Lucky?
Atiku is another among the 18 candidates that pollsters believe could emerge victorious when the ballots are counted after the February 25 election. But the 76-year-old presidential candidate will be going into the election with firm assurance of support from five governors of his party led by Nyesom Wike of Rivers State.
The five governors had refused to support Atiku over his refusal to back the call for the sack of Iyorchia Ayu as the chairman of the party following his emergence as the candidate of the party. The governors had insisted that Ayu who is from the Northern part of the country like Atiku should quit the position for a Southerner to take over following the rotation principle of the party.
But after entreaties to get the governors to support his ambition, the former Customs officer began his quest to rule Nigeria in 1993 and has moved on. Aside from this, the incursion of Peter Obi into the 2023 presidential race is also expected to affect the fortunes of the PDP candidate. Most voters who would have ordinarily voted for PDP and Atiku, especially in the Southern part of the country, Middle Belt, and the Christian minorities in the Northern part of the country are expected to vote for Obi.
However, it was expected that with the influence of Ifeanyi Okowa, the running mate to Atiku, the PDP presidential candidate may at least win the poll in Delta State.
But the former vice president had over the years gathered experience in the presidential contest having taken part in 2007 as the candidate of the defunct Action Congress coming third in the poll won by Umaru Yar’Adua of the PDP. He also contested for the presidential ticket of PDP and APC in 2011 and 2015 respectively.
Atiku returned to the PDP ahead of the 2015 election and also got the presidential ticket of the party to contest against Buhari in the 2019 election. He lost the election to President Buhari of APC. But Atiku garnered over 11 million votes, which is about 41 percent of the total votes cast in the election. Atiku and his supporters said the 11 million votes are still in the bag for him and he will leapfrog them to win the 2023 election. It was also believed that the absence of Buhari who had always won the overwhelming votes in the North since he began contesting for the presidency in 2003.
Atiku had also during his campaign positioned himself as the candidate for the Northern part of the country. In addition, the wide network of political associates and structures built up by Atiku across the country over the years are also expected to help push the ambition of the former vice president in the next Saturday election.
“Woe betide you if you dare underestimate his political prowess and war chest. The legendary 12 million votes man, PMB, narrowly escaped Atiku’s onslaught on the ballot in the 2019 general elections, and many believed that, had the elections not been postponed, he would have won. His continued attempts at the Presidency for over 30 years have made him a veteran and master strategist at the polls. One can never tell, but he just might finally clinch it this time — if the APC does not take good care,” Tahir Ibrahim Tahir, the Talban Bauchi said in response to the emergence of Atiku as the presidential candidate of PDP. So, will Atiku win at last?
Tinubu: Seeking To Fulfill Lifelong Ambition
Ordinarily, Tinubu, the candidate of APC should have no problem winning the 2023 presidential election.
For one, he is the candidate of the ruling party which also controls 24 of the 36 states of Nigeria. But he is going to the presidential election with a lot of baggage. For one, there have been questions about the academic and other qualifications being claimed by the former Lagos governor.
Then, there is the issue of the choice of Kashim Shettima as the running mate of Tinubu – the so-called Muslim-Muslim ticket that has ensured that Christians in many parts of the country will not touch his candidacy even with a long pole.
Christian groups, including the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) and other groups, had campaigned against Tinubu with the claim that the ticket does not reflect the country’s religious diversity.
Some members of the party had not only dumped the party over the controversies generated by the presidential ticket but had also vowed to mobilise the electorate against it.
Aside from this, Tinubu is also going into the election against the background of poorly managed primaries which have resulted in the defection of many members to other parties in various parts of the country. Perhaps, the biggest burden for Tinubu was the record of his party in the over seven years it has been in power so far.
Many Nigerians believe that with the Nigerian economy slipping into recession twice, the over 20 percent inflation rate, mounting national debt, and increasing insecurity across the country; the APC should not be campaigning to remain in Aso Rock beyond 29 May 2023.
“We thought we had a big problem in 2015. 2015 is nothing compared to what will happen in 2023. Some analysts had said the situation of the country is worse now than it was in 2015 when Buhari took over. “The unemployment, insecurity, and the bad state of the economy have made Asiwaju Tinubu unsellable to Nigerians. We are going to change the “change” because the APC change has brought hardship and bloodshed to Nigerians,” a pro-PDP group, TAME-led ex-Deputy Governor of Ekiti State, Dr. Sikiru Lawal, said.
However, former Edo governor, Adams Oshiomhole, dismissed such insinuations: “You cannot say someone who never in any way participated in government be credited with the outcome of government policy or be blamed for same,” Oshiomhole said while also dismissing the focus on Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket of APC. Nevertheless, some analysts have predicted that Tinubu will win the election in the Southwest and also win some states in the North. Some of the pollsters have predicted that though Tinubu will score a high number of votes, he may, however, find it difficult to get the required 25 percent of the votes in two-thirds of the Nigerian states and the FCT.
No Run-Off Election
Analysts said this may lead to a run-off election. However, speaking in an interview last Sunday, Keyamo dismissed the assertion. “To be honest with you, two parties can easily make the 25 percent in 24 states and that is the APC and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
They have this spread. So, let’s be honest about that. Yes, they have the spread, because they have been parties that have been long in the trench and they have structures everywhere. APC is more likely to make that 25 percent, PDP less likely, but possible. Labour Party (LP), it is almost impossible. It is not a comical matter, it is a very factual matter.”
The Minister of Labour said LP is more of a threat to PDP than APC in the 2023 election: “LP is projected to take six states away from the PDP. The whole of eastern states. Most likely they will come to the South-South and take one or two away from PDP.’’
He added that the fact that some of the aggrieved PDP governors are also working for the success of the APC candidate in the presidential election. “Our billboards are now everywhere in Port Harcourt to the glory of God Almighty. So people should get used to seeing Tinubu taking the oath of office on May 29.’’ Following speculations that he is not in full support of the presidential candidate of his party, President Buhari joined some of the campaign rallies of Tinubu. President Buhari, in a video message on Sunday also called on Nigerians to elect Tinubu as his successor in the presidential election.
Buhari, in the video in which he also promised that government will provide the atmosphere necessary for the election to hold without bloodshed in every part of the country, said the former Lagos governor will sustain his legacy. “I am not a contestant in this election, but my party, the All Progressives Congress, has a candidate in the person of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. As I mentioned before, Tinubu is a true believer in Nigeria, who loves the people and the development of our country. I am calling on all of you to vote for Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. He is reliable an
d I trust he will build on our achievements.” Will Nigerians listen to Buhari? This question would have been answered at his time next week.
