Nigeria could face 31,400 additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027 as a potentially powerful El Niño event raises concerns about extreme temperatures, according to projections by the Climate Impact Lab.
The estimate forms part of a wider forecast of 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide between June 2026 and February 2027, compared with what researchers would expect during a normal year. The report identifies Nigeria as one of the countries facing the greatest projected mortality burden, highlighting the need for early preparation and stronger public-health measures.
However, the figures do not represent confirmed deaths or guarantee that the projected fatalities will occur. Instead, they estimate the potential increase in heat-related mortality under forecast temperature conditions.
The warning has renewed concerns about how prolonged heat could affect Nigerians, particularly outdoor workers, older people, children and households with limited access to electricity, clean water and healthcare.
El Niño Deaths Raise Concerns Over Extreme Heat in Nigeria
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that occurs when surface waters in parts of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become unusually warm. This warming changes atmospheric circulation and can influence temperature and rainfall patterns across different parts of the world.
The World Meteorological Organization has warned that the developing event could become exceptionally strong, with significant effects extending into 2027. Depending on regional conditions, El Niño can increase the likelihood of extreme heat, drought or unusually heavy rainfall.
For Nigeria, the immediate concern centres on the health risks associated with high temperatures and prolonged exposure to heat. The Nigerian Meteorological Agency has recorded elevated temperatures in parts of the country, including 41°C in Nguru, Yobe State, and 34°C in Lagos, according to TheCable’s report on the projection.
Such conditions can place considerable stress on the human body, particularly when people spend long hours outdoors without adequate shade, water or opportunities to rest. Farmers, construction workers, traders, transport workers and security personnel may face particular challenges because their jobs often require them to work through hot periods.
Extreme heat can cause dehydration, heat exhaustion and heatstroke, which can become life-threatening without prompt treatment. It can also worsen existing cardiovascular and respiratory conditions, increasing the risks for people who already have health problems.
Although El Niño occurs naturally, human-induced climate change has raised average global temperatures. This warmer baseline can intensify the risks associated with extreme heat, making preparation increasingly important.
How Heat Could Affect Food Prices, Water and Livelihoods
The potential consequences of El Niño extend beyond public health, as changes in rainfall and temperature can affect agriculture, water availability and household expenses.
Farmers depend on suitable rainfall patterns to plant crops, maintain soil moisture and achieve healthy harvests. If some agricultural areas experience prolonged dry spells, farmers could face lower yields, greater irrigation costs and difficulties maintaining livestock.
These pressures could affect food supplies and contribute to price increases, particularly if several food-producing areas experience unfavourable weather conditions at the same time. However, the extent of any effect on Nigerian food prices will depend on local weather patterns, harvest outcomes, transport costs and other market conditions.
Water supplies could also come under pressure if rainfall remains below normal in affected areas. Communities that already struggle with reliable access to clean water may face additional difficulties, while herders could encounter reduced access to grazing land and water for their animals.
Electricity demand may rise as households and businesses rely more heavily on fans and air conditioners to cope with high temperatures. For families dealing with high living costs or unreliable power supplies, staying cool could become more difficult.
Nevertheless, El Niño does not mean every Nigerian state will experience the same conditions. Some areas may face hotter or drier weather, while others could experience different rainfall patterns. Local forecasts remain essential for understanding the risks in each region.
Early Action Could Help Reduce El Niño Deaths
The Climate Impact Lab recommends measures such as heat-warning systems, cooling centres, hydration stations, outreach to vulnerable residents and stronger protections for outdoor workers to reduce heat-related deaths.
Nigeria can use these approaches to improve preparedness before dangerous conditions intensify. Health authorities should communicate clear warnings, explain the symptoms of heat-related illness and ensure that healthcare facilities can respond to heat emergencies.
Employers should also provide outdoor workers with access to drinking water, shaded rest areas and reasonable breaks during the hottest periods. Schools, markets and transport terminals can assess their exposure to extreme temperatures and identify practical ways to protect people who use these facilities.
Individuals can reduce their exposure by drinking water regularly, wearing lightweight clothing, seeking shade and avoiding strenuous activities during the hottest hours when possible. Families should also check on older relatives, young children and neighbours who may need assistance during periods of extreme heat.
The projected El Niño deaths highlight the importance of treating extreme heat as a public-health concern rather than merely an uncomfortable weather condition.
While the Climate Impact Lab’s estimate signals a serious potential risk, the projected deaths are not inevitable. Timely warnings, effective public-health responses and targeted support for vulnerable communities could help limit the damage.
As the weather phenomenon develops, Nigerians should follow updates from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency and other reliable authorities. Continued monitoring will help communities understand changing conditions and take appropriate precautions.