Coronavirus economics watch: Central Asia and the Caucasus, August 2020

A new digest on how the pandemic is plundering Eurasia’s economies.

ARMENIA

• Russian remittances in the first quarter fell 12.9 percent year-on-year, according to the latest Russian Central Bank data available on August 26. 
• A poll conducted in July by the Caucasus Research Resource Center for the World Bank found that 54 percent of Armenians say their financial situation has worsened due to the pandemic, CivilNet reported on August 25. Over one-third (35 percent) of respondents lost work or income and 33 percent expect the situation to worsen. Among respondents who do not support more lockdown restrictions, 66 percent attributed their decision to economic concerns. An English version of the survey can be found here. 
• Armenia’s public debt grew 8.4 percent in the first seven months of 2020, Tert.am reported on August 18, to 58 percent of GDP. 
• On August 18 the education minister described how schools will open on September 15: Classes will be smaller than normal, so the school day will be moved into shorter shifts and students will attend classes six days a week.
• Yerevan has overseen the distribution of 150 billion drams (over $310 million) in pandemic relief so far, Economy Minister Tigran Khachatryan told journalists on August 14. Over 60 percent of this total was issued as bank loans.

AZERBAIJAN

• Non-oil exports fell 8.6 percent in the first seven months of 2020 compared to the same period last year, the government-run Center for Analysis of Economic Reforms and Communication said on August 31. Exports to Turkey fell, while those to Russia and China rose.
• Housing construction has “collapsed,” Turan reported on August 26, citing a 17 percent decline in square meters built in the first seven months of the year.
• Gold exports fell 6.8 percent in the first half of 2020, compared to the same period of 2019, Turan reported on August 20. 
• Azerbaijan’s flag carrier, AZAL, carried 68 percent fewer people in the first seven months of 2020 compared to the same period last year, Turan reported on August 19. 
• Unemployment has increased by 36.6 percent since April 1, at the beginning of the pandemic, Turan reported on August 17. 

GEORGIA

• GDP declined 12.6 percent in the second quarter, compared to the same period the previous year, and 5.8 percent in the first seven months of 2020, the National Statistic Office said on August 31. Government officials said the 5.5 percent decrease in July indicates the economy has begun to recover.
• Georgia has almost doubled peach and nectarine exports this season, as of August 26, compared to last year, Agenda.ge reported. 
• The National Statistics Office on August 19 released updated trade figures for the first seven months of 2020: Exports as a whole, including reexports, fell 16.8 percent year-on-year while exports of wholly Georgian-made goods fell 2 percent. External trade turnover dropped 17.6 percent in the first half of 2020, the National Statistics Office said on August 13.

KAZAKHSTAN

• Foreign trade turnover fell 7.4 percent in the first half of 2020 compared to the same period of 2019, the trade minister said on August 20. Turnover with Eurasian Economic Union members fell 10 percent. 
• Since March, 15 percent of Kazakh bank borrowers have asked for repayment forbearance, Fitch Ratings estimated on August 20. That includes 34 percent of retail and 41 percent of SME borrowers.
• Authorities will allow some international flights to resume on August 17, Tengri reported on August 12. Approved destinations include the United Arab Emirates,  Belarus, Germany, the Netherlands, Egypt, Ukraine and Russia.
• GDP declined 2.9 percent in the first six months of 2020, the government said on August 11. At 7.1 percent, inflation was slightly below expectations.
• The Ministry of Labor and Social Protection said that 2.5 million Kazakhstanis have applied for government assistance to help with job loss related to the pandemic since the second lockdown began last month. 2.3 million received the 42,000 tenge ($100) payment, Inform.kz reported on August 11. 

KYRGYZSTAN

• Russian remittances in the first quarter fell 20.1 percent year-on-year, according to the latest Russian Central Bank data available on August 26. Remittances shot up in June following several below-average months, 24.kg reported, citing unpublished National Bank figures. Most transfers originated in Russia. 
• A study overseen by the Economy Ministry expects GDP this year to fall by 10 percent, 24.kg reported on August 13. 
• The Moscow-led Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development announced a $100 million concessionary loan to Kyrgyzstan for pandemic relief on August 7.
• International donors have provided $333 million to Kyrgyzstan to help fight coronavirus, the deputy finance minister said on August 5. $260 million was received in the form of budget support. 
• Kyrgyzstan has negotiated debt extensions with most of its creditors, but not yet with China, which owns almost half of the debt, Rossiyskaya Gazeta reported on August 5. In total, Kyrgyzstan expects to owe $4.2 billion at the end of the year, Finance Minister Baktygul Zheenbaeva said.

TAJIKISTAN

• Pensions and wages for public-sector workers, such as doctors, will increase 15 percent on September 1, the second such raise in two years. But with inflation stubbornly high, the supplement will do little to help the many workers barely able to subsist, Radio Ozodi reported on August 29.
• The Asian Development Bank announced on August 26 that it will grant Tajikistan $323 million in development assistance over the next three years. 
• Russian remittances in the first quarter fell 22.3 percent year-on-year, according to the latest Russian Central Bank data available on August 26. 
• Restaurant turnover fell almost 23 percent in the first seven months of 2020, Asia-Plus reported on August 25, citing the state statistics agency. The fall was most pronounced in the capital, at over 33 percent, whereas in the southern Khatlon region business reportedly increased by over 8 percent.
• Money transfers to Russia increased 47 percent in the first quarter of 2020, the UN said in an August 21 report, “possibly as a result of financial support from families to migrants who are currently in Russia without a job.” Usually money flows in the opposite direction, but these remittances have fallen dramatically since the pandemic began. 

TURKMENISTAN

• Foreign companies operating in Turkmenistan are evacuating employees on charter flights, we reported on August 25. The government still denies the pandemic has reached the country.
• State employees in the Lebap province, including workers at state-owned factories and teachers, have been sent on unpaid leave for three months, Central Asia Media reported on August 6. 
• The pandemic is forcing the government to put its long-term industrial plans on hold. The most notable among these being the trans-Afghan TAPI natural gas pipeline. This much was admitted on July 27, during a video-conference meeting of representatives from project participant nations. One conclusion reached during that exchange was that work would be “activated” once the pandemic is over. Since Turkmenistan is so mysterious about its own health crisis, however, it is difficult to understand how anybody will know when and if that has happened. 
• Authorities in Ashgabat have begun removing ATMs to prevent crowding, exile-run Turkmen News reported on July 22, making it impossible for people to withdraw their salaries, pensions and child benefits.

UZBEKISTAN

• Lukoil says it is operating its Uzbek gas production infrastructure at 20 percent capacity, due to the decline in purchases from China, Uzdaily reported on August 30. 
• Finance Minister Timur Ishmetov told parliament on August 26 that external debt grew by 10.9 percent, or $17.3 billion, in the first half of 2020. In May the IMF said that the country’s debt to GDP ratio rose from 34 percent to 44 percent in the year to 2019. 
• Russian remittances in the first quarter fell 7.2 percent year-on-year, according to the latest Russian Central Bank data available on August 26. 
• Foreign trade turnover fell 19 percent, or $4.7 billion, year-on-year between January and July, the state statistics committee reported on August 20. China remains the country’s largest trading partner. Retail activity decreased 2.9 percent in the same period.
• Fitch assigned the National Bank of Uzbekistan a “BB-” rating on August 19 with “outlook stable” reflecting “moderate probability of support from the Uzbek authorities in case of need.” “Our view of support propensity also captures NBU’s clearly defined policy role, including the financing of Uzbekistan’s long-term infrastructure and development projects and state-owned enterprises.”
• Remittances flowing into Uzbekistan fell 7 percent in the first seven months of 2020, to $3 billion, the Central Bank said on August 18.